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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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While the guide does not impose novel legal duties, it effectively tightens the operational framework that operators must observe to manage player fraud in France.

It has addressed ongoing questions faced by operators regarding when it is reasonable to close accounts, withhold or return player balances, cancel bets, or redistribute tournament prizes deemed fraudulently obtained. 

Notably, it has also provided insight into the evidentiary standards French courts expect operators to meet before taking corrective actions that could be subject to legal challenge.

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The bulk of the work revolved around compiling and codifying the technical information in one place, Eberwein said. There were some existing Technical Standards, but other requirements lived in the state’s Minimum Internal Control Standards, which are a broad mix of technical and procedural requirements.

The goal is to make it easier for licencees to find technical information in one definitive source rather searching across multiple libraries. Most of the explanatory notes in the revisions refer to adaptations from MICS and other sources. This process has been years in the making, Eberwein said, with work stopping and starting at various points.

“We had various iterations of the drafts internally probably going back at least a decade, and just never made it to the finish line for various reasons,” he explained.